CV & Papers

Curriculum Vitae & Scientific Publications

Pre-PhD I was educated in theoretical biology for my MSc (Utrecht University). Though this was lot’s of fun and appealed to my inner nerd, afterwards I decided that I needed to get away from my computer a bit more and embarked on a PhD that combined field work with mathematical modeling. During my PhD (cum laude; Groningen University) I studied life-history decisions in a long-lived shorebird on a tiny island in the Netherlands. When my field experiments were flooded three years in a row, I decided to take this as a sign and switch fields to study global change ecology.

Postdocs After a short stay at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany (damn, these human demographers know their stats!), I first headed up north for a 2-year postdoctoral fellowship at the Norwegian University for Science & Technology to get acquainted with theory on stochastic population dynamics. Wondering where the sun had gone, I then headed down south to work as a research fellow at the Australian National University for 3 years on Australian’s favourite bird: fairy-wrens. These birds have quite a reputation because of their extreme promiscuity and lots of weird behaviour, but they are actually quite decent birds I can tell you from personal experience. In fact, I discovered that they are also a very useful model system to study how individuals respond to climate change (they really, really love rain…).

Group leader Having settled down in green Canberra, with two kids contributing to my Darwinian fitness in the meantime, from 2013-2017 I was a senior lecturer and ARC Future Fellow at the Australian National University, where I got experience in building up a research group and was privileged to advise talented PhD students, as well as get some experience in teaching. From 2017-2021 I was a senior scientist at the Netherlands Institute of Ecology of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences (NIOO-KNAW) enjoying the company of enthusiastic MSc & PhD students and postdocs sharing an interest in global change ecology. Nowadays, I work at James Cook University while living in and exploring this beautiful tropical region of NE-Australia, continuing my research with an increasing emphasis on quantitative and modeling approaches in my research as well as teaching. In between sciencing (that is an existing verb, right?), I perform editorial board duties (Proceedings of the Royal Society: B 2018-ongoing; Journal of Animal Ecology 2012-2020; theme issue for PhilTransB in 2017).

Publications See also my Google Scholar, ResearchGate or OrcID

  1. van de Pol, M., Bailey, L. Frauendorf, M., Allen, A., van der Sluijs, M., Hijner, N., Brouwer, L., de Kroon, H., Jongejans, E. & Ens, B. (2024). Sea level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitat drowns. Nature Climate Change, in press.
  2. van der Kolk, H., Smit., C. Allen, A., Ens, B. & van de Pol, M. (2024). Frequency-dependent tolerance to aircraft disturbance drastically alters predicted impact on shorebirds. Ecology Letters, in press.
  3. van de Walle, J., Fay, R., Gaillard, J., Pelletier, F., Hamel, S., Gamelon, M., Barbraud, C., Blanchet, F., Blumstein, D., Charmantier, A., Delord, K., Larue, B., Martin, J., Mills, J., Milot, E., Mayer, F., Rotella, J., Sæther, B., Teplitsky, C., van de Pol, M., Van Vuren, D., Visser, M., Wells, C., Yarrall, J. Jenouvrier, S. (2023). Individual life histories: Neither slow nor fast, just diverse. Proceedings of the Royal Society B., 290: 20230511. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0511
  4. Halupka, L., Arlt, D., …., van de Pol, M, …., Halupka, K. 2023. The Effect of Climate Change on Avian Offspring Production: A Global Meta-Analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120:  e2208389120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208389120
  5. Lv, L., van de Pol, M., Osmond, H. Yang, L., Cockburn, A.& Kruuk, L. 2023. Winter mortality of a passerine bird increases following hotter summers and during winters with higher maximum temperatures. Science Advances, 9 (1), eabm0197.
  6. Harvey, J., Tougeron, K., Gols, R., Heinen, R., Abarca, M., Abram, P., Basset, Y., Berg, M., Boggs, C., Brodeur, J., Cardoso, P., de Boer, J., de Snoo, G., Deacon, C., Dell, J., Desneux, N., Dillon, M., Duffy, G., Dyer, L., Ellers, J., Espíndola, A., Fordyce, J., Forister, M., Fukushima, C., Gage, M., Garcia-Robledo, C., Gely, C., Gobbi, M., Hallmann, C., Hance, T., Harte, J., Hochkirch, A., Hof, C., Hoffmann, A., Kingsolver, J., Lamarre, G., Laurance, W., Lavandero, B., Leather, S., Lehmann, P., Le Lann, C., Lopez-Uribe, M., Ma, C., Ma, G., Moiroux, J., Monticelli, L., Nice, C., Ode, P., Pincebourde, S., Ripple, W., Rowe, M., Samways, M., Sentis, A., Shah, A., Stork, N., Terblanche, J., Thakur, M., Thomas, M., Tylianakis, J., van Baaren, J., van de Pol, M., van der Putten, W., Van Dyck, H., Verberk, W., Wagner, D., Weisser, W., Wetzel, W., Woods, A., Wyckhuys, K. & Chown, S. 2022. Scientists’ warning on climate change and insects. Ecological Monographs, 93(1): e1553. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1553
  7. Fay, R. , Hamel, S. , van de Pol, M. , Gaillard, J. , Yoccoz, N. , Acker, P , Authier, M. , Larue, B. , Le Coeur, C. , MacDonald, K. , Nicol-Harper, A. , Barbraud, C. , Bonenfant, C. , van Vuren, D. , Cam, E. , DeLord, K. , Gamelon, M. , Moiron, M. , Pelletier, F. , Rotella, J. , Teplitsky, C. , Visser, M. , Wells, C. , Wheelwright, N. , Jenouvrier, S. , Sæther, B. (2022). Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecology Letters, 25: 1640-1654. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.14026
  8. Bailey, L., van de Pol, M.  Adriaensen, F., Arct, A., Barba, E. Bellamy, P., Bonamour, S., Bouvier, J., Burgess, M., Charmantier, M., Cusimano C., Doligez, B., Drobniak S., Dubiec,A., Eens,  M., Eeva, T., Ferns, P., Goodenough, A., Hartley, I., Hinsley, S., Ivankina, E., Juskaitis R, Kempenaers, B., Kerimov, A., Lavigne, C., Leivits, A., Mainwaring, M., Matthysen, E., Nilsson, J., Orell, M., Rytkanen, S., Senar, J., Sheldon, B., Sorace, A., Stenning, M. Török, J., van Oers, K., Vatka, E., Vriend, S., & Visser, M. 2022. Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation. Nature Communications, 13, 2112. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4
  9. McLean, N. Kruuk, L.E.B., van der Jeugd, H.P., Leech, D., van Turnhout, C.A.M. & van de Pol, M. 2022. Warming temperatures drive at least half of the magnitude of long-term trait changes in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 119, e2105416119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2105416119
  10. Frauendorf, M. Allen, A.M., Jongejans, E., Ens, B.J., Teunissen, W., Kampichler, C., Kleyheeg, E., van Turnhout, C.A.M., Bailey, L.D., Nienhuis, J., de Kroon, H., Cremer, J. & van de Pol, M. 2022. Love thy neighbour? – Spatial variation in density dependence of nest survival in relation to predator community. Diversity & Distributions 28, 624-635. http://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13457
  11. Fay, R., Authier, M., Hamel, S., Jenouvrier, S., van de Pol, M., Cam, E., Gaillard, J., Yoccoz, N., Acker, P. Allen, A.,Aubry, L., Bonenfant, C., Caswell, H., Coste, C., Larue, B., Le Cœur, C., Gamelon, M., MacDonald, K., Moiron, M., Nicol-Harper, A., Pelletier, F., Rotella, J., Teplitsky, C., Touzot, L., Wells, C. & Sæther, B. 2022. Quantifying fixed individual heterogeneity in demographic parameters: Performance of correlated random effects for Bernoulli variables. Methods in Ecology & Evolution, 13: 91-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13728
  12. Allen, A.M., Jongejans, E., van de Pol, M., Ens, B.J. Frauendorf, M., van der Sluijs, M. & de Kroon, H. 2022. The demographic causes of population change vary across four decades in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 103: e3615. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3615
  13. van Irsel, J., Frauendorf, M., Ens, B.J., van de Pol, M., Troost, K., Oosterbeek, K., de Kroon, H., Jongejans, E. & Allen, A.M. 2022 State-dependent environmental sensitivity of reproductive success and survival in a shorebird. Ibis 164: 692-710. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13038
  14. van der Kolk, H., Ens B., Oosterbeek, O., Jongejans, E. & van de Pol, M. 2022. The hidden cost of disturbance: Eurasian Oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) avoid a disturbed roost site during the tourist season. Ibis, 164: 437-450. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13035
  15. van der Kolk H-J, Desmet P, Oosterbeek K, Allen AM, Baptist MJ, Bom RA, Davidson SC, de Jong J, de Kroon H, Dijkstra B, Dillerop R, Dokter AM, Frauendorf M, Milotić T, Rakhimberdiev E, Shamoun-Baranes J, Spanoghe G, van de Pol M, Van Ryckegem G, Vanoverbeke J, Jongejans E, Ens BJ (2022) GPS tracking data of Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) from the Netherlands and Belgium. ZooKeys 1123: 31-45. https://doi.org/10.3897/zookeys.1123.90623
  16. van de Pol, M. & Brouwer, L. 2021. Cross-lags and the unbiased estimation of life-history and demographic parameters.  Journal of Animal Ecology 90: 2234–2253. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13572
  17. Frauendorf, M., Allen, A., Verhulst, S., Jongejans., Ens, B., van der Kolk, H., de Kroon, H., Nienhuis, J. & van de Pol, M. 2021 Conceptualizing and quantifying body condition using structural equation modelling: a user guide.  Journal of Animal Ecology, 90: 2478–2496. doi:10.1111/1365-2656.13578
  18. Bakker, W., Allen, A., Ens, B., Dokter, A., van der Kolk, H., Rappoldt, K., van de Pol, M., Troost, K., van der Veer, H., Bijleveld, A., van der Meer, J., & Jongejans, E., 2021. Connecting foraging and roosting areas reveals how food stocks explain shorebird numbers. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 259: 107458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107458.
  19. Cockburn, A., Penalba, J.V., Jaccoud, D., Kilian, A., Brouwer, L., Double, M.C., Margraf, N., Osmond, H.L., Kruuk, L.E.B. & van de Pol, M. 2021. hiphop: improved paternity assignment among close relatives using a simple exclusion method for biallelic markers. Molecular Ecology Resources, 21: 1850-1865. https://doi.org/10.1111/1755-0998.13389
  20. van der Kolk, H., Ens, B., Frauendorf, M., Jongejans, E., Oosterbeek, K., Bouten, W. & van de Pol, M. 2021. Why time-limited individuals can make populations more vulnerable to disturbance. Oikos, 130: 637-651. doi: 10.1111/oik.08031.
  21. van der Kolk, H., Ens, B., Jongejans, E., Frauendorf, M., Allen, A., de Kroon, H. & van de Pol, M. 2021. Conclusies uit vier jaar onderzoek naar vliegtuigverstoring van Scholeksters (Haematopus ostralegus) op Vlieland. Twirre 31 (2), 9-18.
  22. de Villemereuil, P. & 33 others including van de Pol, M. 2020. Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117: 31969-31978. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009003117
  23. McLean, N. Kruuk, L.E.B. van der Jeugd, H. Leech, D., van Turnhout, C. & van de Pol, M. 2020 Climate warming explains half of the magnitude of temporal changes in life-history traits. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-84672/v1
  24. van de Pol, M., Brouwer, L. & Cockburn, A. 2020. R package hiphop: Parentage Assignment using Bi-Allelic Genetic Markers. Statistical software. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=hiphop
  25. Bailey, LD, van de Pol, M., Adriaensen, F., Barba, E., Bellamy, PE., Bouvier, J., Burgess, MD., Charmantier, A., Cusimano, C. Doligez, B., Drobniak, S.M., Dubiec, A., Eens M., Eeva, T., Ferns, P.N., Goodenough, AE., Hartley, IR.,  Hinsley, SA., Ivankina, E., Juskaitis, R., Kempenaers, B., Kerimov, AB.,  Lauriere, A., Lavigne, C., Leivits, A., Mainwaring, MC., Matthysen, E., Nilsson, J., Orell, M., Rytkonen, S., Senar, JC., Sheldon, BC., Sorace, A., Stenning, MJ., Torok, J., Vatka, E., Vriend, SJG. & Visser., ME. 2020 Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation bioRxiv; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.16.252379
  26. van der Kolk, H., Allen, A., Ens, B., Oosterbeek, K., Jongejans, E., & van de Pol, M. 2020 Spatiotemporal variation in disturbance impacts derived from simultaneous tracking of aircraft and shorebirds Journal of Applied Ecology, 57: 2406–2418. [PDF]
  27. McLean, N.M., van der Jeugd, H.P., van Turnhout, C.A.M., Lefcheck, J.S. & van de Pol, M. 2020 Reduced avian body condition due to global warming has little reproductive or population consequences. Oikos 129: 714-730. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06802
  28. Brouwer, L. *, Cockburn, A. & van de Pol, M.* 2020 Integrating fitness components reveals that survival costs outweigh other benefits and costs of group living in two closely related species. American Naturalist, 195: 201-215. https://doi.org/10.1086/706475 *shared lead author
  29. van der Kolk, H., Krijgsveld, K.L., Linssen, H., Diertens,R., Dolman, D., Jans, M., Frauendorf, M., Ens, B.J. & van de Pol, M. 2020 Cumulative energetic costs of military aircraft, recreational and natural disturbance in roosting shorebirds. Animal Conservation , 23: 359–372 [PDF]
  30. van der Kolk, H., Ens, B., Oosterbeek, K., Bouten, W., Allen, A., Frauendorf, M., Lameris, T., Oosterbeek, T., Deuzeman, S., de Vries, K., Jongejans, E. & van de Pol, M. 2020 Shorebird feeding specialists differ in how environmental conditions alter their foraging time. Behavioral Ecology, 31: 371-382. http://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/arz189
  31. Haest, B., Hüppop, O., van de Pol, M., Bairlein, F. 2019 Autumn bird migration phenology: A potpourri of wind, precipitation and temperature effects Global Change Biology, 25: 4064– 4080 [PDF]
  32. Hidalgo Aranzamendi, N., Hall, M., Kingma, S., van de Pol, M. & Peters, A. 2019 Rapid plastic breeding response to rain matches peak prey abundance in a tropical savanna bird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 88: 1799– 1811. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13068
  33. Linssen, H., van de Pol, M., Allen, A., Jans, M., Ens, B., Krijgsveld, K.L., Frauendorf, M., & van der Kolk, H. 2019 Disturbance increases high tide travel distance of a roosting shorebird but only marginally affects daily energy expenditure. Avian Research, 10:31 [PDF]
  34. Bulla and 30 others incl. van de Pol M. No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. Science 364, 6445. [PDF]
  35. Bailey, L.D., Ens, B.J., Both, C., Heg, D., Oosterbeek, K. & van de Pol, M. Habitat selection can reduce effects of extreme climatic events in a long‐lived shorebird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 88: 1474–1485 [PDF]
  36. Allen, A.M., Ens, B.J., van de Pol, M., van der Jeugd, H., Frauendorf, M., van der Kolk, H., Oosterbeek, K., Nienhuis, J., & Jongejans, J. Colour-ring wear and loss effects in citizen science mark-resighting studies. Avian research 10: 11 [PDF]
  37. van de Pol, M. & Bailey, L.D. 2019 F. Quantifying the climatic sensitivity of individuals, populations, and species. In: Effects of Climate Change on Birds, 2nd edition by P. O. Dunn & A. P. Møller, Oxford University Press. [PDF]
  38. Radchuk, V, Courtiol, A, Reed, T. Teplitsky, C, van de Pol, M. et al..  2019 Adaptive responses of animals to climate change: not universal, likely insufficient. Nature Communications, 10: 3109 [PDF]
  39. Lichtenauer, W., van de Pol, M, Cockburn, A. & Brouwer, L. 2019 Indirect fitness benefits through extra-pair mating are large for an inbred minority, but cannot explain widespread infidelity among red-winged fairy-wrens. Evolution, 73: 467–480 [PDF]
  40. Evans, T.R., Salvatore,D. , van de Pol, M. & Musters, C.J.M. 2019 Adult firefly abundance is linked to weather during the larval stage in the previous year. Ecological Entomology, 44, 265–273. [PDF]
  41. Allen, A., Ens, B., van de Pol, M. van der Jeugd, H. Frauendorf, M. van der Kolk, H. Oosterbeek, K. de Kroon, H. & Jongejans, E. 2019 Seasonal survival and migratory connectivity of a partially migratory wading bird revealed by citizen science. Auk, 136, 1-17. [PDF]
  42. McLean, N., van der Jeugd, H., van Turnhout, C., Lefcheck, J. & van de Pol, M. (2018). High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species. PLoS ONE 13(2): e0192401 [PDF]
  43. Clements, C., van de Pol, M., Ozgul, A. 2018. Weighted trait-abundance early warning signals better predict population collapse. bioRxiv 282087 [PDF]
  44. van de Pol, M., Jenouvrier, S.& Visser, M.E. (editors) 2017. Theme issue on Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary response to extreme climatic events. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society volume 372, issue 1723.
  45. Brouwer, L.,van de Pol, M., Aranzamendi,N., Bain G., Baldassare,D., Brooker,L.C, Brooker,M.G., Colombelli-Négrel,D., Enbody,E., Hall,M., Karubian,J., Kingma S., Kleindorfer,S., Mulder,R., Peters,A.,Pruett-Jones,S., Tarvin,K., Thrasher,D., Varian-Ramos,C., Webster,M.& Cockburn A. (2017). Multiple hypotheses explain variation in extra-pair paternity at different levels in a single bird family. Molecular Ecology 26: 6717-29.[PDF]
  46. Bailey, L. Ens, B., Both, C. Heg, D., Oosterbeek, K. & van de Pol, M. (2017) No phenotypic plasticity in nest‐site selection in response to extreme flooding events. Phil. Trans. Roy Soc. B 372: 20160139.[PDF]
  47. van de Pol, M., Jenouvrier, S. Cornelissen, J. H.C. & Visser, M.E. (2017) Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary response to extreme climatic events: Challenges and directions. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B 372: 20160134.[PDF]
  48. McLean, N., Lawson, C., Leech, D. & van de Pol, M. (2016) Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics. Ecology Letters 19, 595-608.
  49. van de Pol, M.,Bailey, L. McLean, N. Rijsdijk, L., Lawson, C. & Brouwer, L. (2016) Identifying the best climatic predictors in ecology and evolution. Methods in Ecology & Evolution 7, 1246–1257 [PDF]
  50. Bailey, L.D. & van de Pol, M. (2016) climwin: An R Toolbox for Climate Window Analysis. PLoS ONE 11: e0167980. [PDF]
  51. Bakker, J.P., Baas, A.C., Bartholdy, J., Jones, L., Ruessink, G., Temmerman, S. & van de Pol, M. (2016). Environmental Impacts—Coastal Ecosystems. In North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (pp. 275-314). Springer International Publishing [PDF]
  52. Bailey, L.D. & van de Pol, M. (2016). Tackling extremes: Challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events. Journal of Animal Ecology, 85, 85-96.[PDF]
  53. Cockburn, A., Brouwer, L., Margraf, N., Osmond, H.L & van de Pol, M. (2016) Making the worst of a good job: cooperative breeding in superb fairy-wrens. In Cooperative Breeding in Vertebrates: Studies of Ecology, Evolution and Behaviour (ed. Koenig & Dickinson). Cambridge University Press.
  54. Mourocq, E., Bize, P., Bouwhuis, S. Bradley, R., Burke, T., Charmantier, A. de la Cruz, C., Drobniak, S.M. Espie, R.H.M., Herenyi, M., Hotker, H. Kempenaers, B., Kruger, O., Marzluff, J., Moller, A.P., Nakagawa, S., Phillips, R. Radford, A. Roulin, A., Schlicht, E., Torok, J., Valencia, J., van de Pol, M., Warkentin, I.G., Wood, A.G., Winney, I.S., Griesser, M. (2016). Lifespan and reproductive cost explain interspecific variation in the optimal onset of reproduction. Evolution 70 (2), 296-313.[PDF]
  55. Lejeune, L., van de Pol, M., Cockburn, A., Louter, M. & Brouwer, L. (2016) Male and female helper effects on maternal investment and adult survival in red-winged fairy-wrens. Behavioural Ecology 27: 1841-1850.[PDF]
  56. Lawson, C., Vindenes, Y., Bailey, L. & van de Pol, M. (2015). Environmental variation and population responses to global change. Ecology Letters 18: 724-736. [PDF]
  57. Herfindal, I., van de Pol, M., Nielsen, J.T., Sæther, B.E. & Møller, A.P. (2015) Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor. Journal of Animal Ecology 84: 702-711. [PDF]
  58. Bailey, L.D. & van de Pol, M. 2015. R package climwin: Climate Window Analysis. Statistical software. http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/climwin/
  59. Ens, B.J., van de Pol, M. & Goss-Custard, J. (2014). The study of career decisions: Oystercatchers as social prisoners. Advances in the Study of Behaviour, 46: 343-420.[PDF]
  60. Brouwer, L., van de Pol, M. & Cockburn, A.  (2014) The role of social environment on parental care: offspring benefit more from the presence of female than male helpers. Journal of Animal Ecology 83: 491-503.[PDF]
  61. van de Pol, M. & Atkinson, P., Blew, J., Crowe, O. Delany, S., Duriez, O., Ens, B., Hälterlein, B., Hötker, H., Laursen, K., Oosterbeek, K., Petersen, A., Thorup, O.,  Tjørve, K., Triplet, P. & Yésou, P. (2014) A global assessment of the conservation status of the nominate subspecies of Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus). IWS 20: 47-61. [PDF]
  62. Brouwer, L., van de Pol, M. & Cockburn, A. (2014) Habitat geometry does not affect levels of extrapair paternity in an extremely unfaithful fairy-wren. Behavioural Ecology 25: 531-537. [PDF]
  63. van de Pol, M., Brouwer, L., Brooker, L.C., Brooker, M.G., Colombelli-Negrel, D., Hall, M.L., Langmore, N.E., Peters, A.   Pruett-Jones, S., Russell, E.M., Webster, M.S. & Cockburn, A.(2013) Problems with using large-scale oceanic climate indices to compare climatic sensitivities across populations and species. Ecography 36: 249-255. [PDF]
  64. Cockburn, A., Brouwer, L., Double, M.C., Margraf, N. & van de Pol, M. (2013) Evolutionary origins and persistence of infidelity in Malurus: the least faithful birds. Emu 113: 208-217. [PDF]
  65. van de Pol, M., Ens, B.J., Bakker, J.P. Esselink, P. (2012) Sea-level rise and increasing flooding risk of saltmarsh breeding birds. De Levende Natuur 113: 123‐128 [PDF]
  66. van de Pol, M., Osmond, H & Cockburn, A. (2012) Fluctuations in population composition dampen the impact of phenotypic plasticity on trait dynamics in superb fairy-wrens. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81: 411-421. [PDF]
  67. van de Pol, M. (2012) Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: how study design affects the accuracy, precision and power of random regression models. Methods in Ecology & Evolution, 3: 268-280. [PDF]
  68. Dingemanse, N., Bouwman, K., van de Pol, M., van Overveld, T., Patrick, S., Matthysen, E. & Quinn, J. (2012) Variation in personality and behavioural plasticity across four populations of great tit Parus Major. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81: 116–126. [PDF]
  69. van de Pol, M., Vindenes, Y., Sæther, B.E., Engen, S., Ens, B.J., Oosterbeek, K., Tinbergen, J.M. (2011) Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 278: 3713-3722.[PDF]
  70. Brouwer, L., van de Pol, M., Atema, E. & Cockburn, A. (2011) Strategic promiscuity helps avoid inbreeding at multiple levels in a cooperative breeder where both sexes are philopatric. Molecular Ecology 20: 4796–4807.[PDF]
  71. van de Pol, M. & Cockburn, A. (2011) Identifying the critical climatic time-window that affects trait expression. The American Naturalist 177: 698-707. [PDF]
  72. van de Pol, M. (2011) R-package odprism: Optimal Design and Performance of Random Intercept and Slope Models. http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/odprism/
  73. van de Pol, M., Ens, B.J., Heg, D.H., Brouwer, L., Krol, J., Maier, M., Exo, K-M., Oosterbeek, K., Lok, T., Eising, C., Koffijberg, K. (2010) Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds? Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 720-730 [PDF]
  74. van de Pol, M., Vindenes, Y., Sæther, B.E., Engen, S., Ens, B., Oosterbeek, K., Tinbergen, J.M. (2010) Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 91: 1192-1204. [PDF]
  75. van de Pol, M., Brouwer, L., Ens, B.J., Oosterbeek, K., Tinbergen, J.M. (2010) Fluctuating selection and the maintenance of individual and sex-specific diet specialization in oystercatchers. Evolution 64: 836-851 [PDF]
  76. Brouwer, L., Barr, I., van de Pol, M., Burke, T., Komdeur, J. & Richardson, D.S. (2010) MHC-dependent survival in a wild population: evidence for hidden genetic benefits gained through extra-pair fertilisations. Molecular Ecology 19: 3444-3455. [PDF]
  77. van de Pol, M. (2010) Invisible connections: Why migratory shorebirds need the Yellow sea. Emu 110, 378-379.
  78. van de Pol, M. (2010) Reproductive rates under competition. Ardea 98: 120-121.
  79. van de Pol, M. & Wright, J. (2009) A simple method for distinguishing within versus between-subject effects using mixed models. Animal Behaviour 77:753-758. [PDF]
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  89. van de Pol, M. (2006) State dependent life-history strategies: a long-term study on Oystercatchers. University of Groningen, the Netherlands. ISBN 90-367-2677-8  [PDF]
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  92. Bruinzeel, L.W. & van de Pol, M. (2003) Population decline of Oystercatchers on Schiermonnikoog. Limosa 76, 25-26. [PDF]
  93. Ens, B.J., Berrevoets, C., Bruinzeel, L.W., Bult, T., Haanstra, L., Hulscher, J.B., Koks, B., van de Pol, M., Rappoldt, C., Teunissen, W. & Verhulst, S. (2003) What causes the current decline of Oystercatchers in the Netherlands? Limosa 76: 34-38 [PDF]