Publications

Click on hyperlinks of paper to download PDF (see also my Google Scholar page or OrcID).

  1. van der Kolk, H., Krijgsveld, K.L., Linssen, H., Diertens,R., Dolman, D., Jans, M., Frauendorf, M., Ens, B.J. & van de Pol, M. Cumulative energetic costs of military aircraft, recreational and natural disturbance in roosting shorebirds. Animal Conservation , in press. doi:10.1111/acv.12546
  2. van der Kolk, H., Ens, B., Oosterbeek, K., Bouten, W., Allen, A., Frauendorf, M., Lameris, T., Oosterbeek, T., Deuzeman, S., de Vries, K., Jongejans, E. & van de Pol, M. Shorebird feeding specialists differ in how environmental conditions alter their foraging time. Behavioral Ecology, in press
  3. Brouwer, L. *, Cockburn, A. & van de Pol, M.* 2019 Integrating fitness components reveals that survival costs outweigh other benefits and costs of group living in two closely related species. American Naturalist, in press https://doi.org/10.1086/706475 *shared first author [PDF]
  4. Haest, B., Hüppop, O., van de Pol, M., Bairlein, F. 2019 Autumn bird migration phenology: A potpourri of wind, precipitation and temperature effects Global Change Biology, 25: 4064– 4080 [PDF]
  5. Hidalgo Aranzamendi, N., Hall, M., Kingma, S., van de Pol, M. & Peters, A. 2019 Rapid plastic breeding response to rain matches peak prey abundance in a tropical savanna bird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 88: 1799– 1811. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13068
  6. Linssen, H., van de Pol, M., Allen, A., Jans, M., Ens, B., Krijgsveld, K.L., Frauendorf, M., & van der Kolk, H. 2019 Disturbance increases high tide travel distance of a roosting shorebird but only marginally affects daily energy expenditure. Avian Research, 10:31 [PDF]
  7. Bulla and 30 others incl. van de Pol M. No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. Science 364, eaaw8529 [PDF]
  8. Bailey, L.D., Ens, B.J., Both, C., Heg, D., Oosterbeek, K. & van de Pol, M. Habitat selection can reduce effects of extreme climatic events in a long‐lived shorebird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 88: 1474–1485 [PDF]
  9. Allen, A.M., Ens, B.J., van de Pol, M., van der Jeugd, H., Frauendorf, M., van der Kolk, H., Oosterbeek, K., Nienhuis, J., & Jongejans, J. Colour-ring wear and loss effects in citizen science mark-resighting studies. Avian research 10: 11 [PDF]
  10. van de Pol, M. & Bailey, L.D. 2019 F. In: Effects of Climate Change on Birds, 2nd edition by P. O. Dunn & A. P. Møller, Oxford University Press. [PDF]
  11. Radchuk, V, Courtiol, A, Reed, T. Teplitsky, C, van de Pol, M. et al..  2019 Adaptive responses of animals to climate change: not universal, likely insufficient. Nature Communications, 10: 3109 [PDF]
  12. Lichtenauer, W., van de Pol, M, Cockburn, A. & Brouwer, L. 2019 Indirect fitness benefits through extra-pair mating are large for an inbred minority, but cannot explain widespread infidelity among red-winged fairy-wrens. Evolution, 73: 467–480 [PDF]
  13. Evans, T.R., Salvatore,D. , van de Pol, M. & Musters, C.J.M. 2019 Adult firefly abundance is linked to weather during the larval stage in the previous year. Ecological Entomology, 44, 265–273. [PDF]
  14. Allen, A., Ens, B., van de Pol, M. van der Jeugd, H. Frauendorf, M. van der Kolk, H. Oosterbeek, K. de Kroon, H. & Jongejans, E. 2019 Seasonal survival and migratory connectivity of a partially migratory wading bird revealed by citizen science. Auk, 136, 1-17. [PDF]
  15. McLean, N., van der Jeugd, H., van Turnhout, C., Lefcheck, J. & van de Pol, M. (2018). High intra-specific variation in avian body mass responses to climate limits generalisation across species. PLoS ONE 13(2): e0192401 [PDF]
  16. Clements, C., van de Pol, M., Ozgul, A. 2018. Weighted trait-abundance early warning signals better predict population collapse. bioRxiv 282087 [PDF]
  17. van de Pol, M., Jenouvrier, S.& Visser, M.E. (editors) 2017. Theme issue on Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary response to extreme climatic events. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society volume 372, issue 1723.
  18. Brouwer, L.,van de Pol, M., Aranzamendi,N., Bain G., Baldassare,D., Brooker,L.C, Brooker,M.G., Colombelli-Négrel,D., Enbody,E., Hall,M., Karubian,J., Kingma S., Kleindorfer,S., Mulder,R., Peters,A.,Pruett-Jones,S., Tarvin,K., Thrasher,D., Varian-Ramos,C., Webster,M.& Cockburn A. (2017). Multiple hypotheses explain variation in extra-pair paternity at different levels in a single bird family. Molecular Ecology 26: 6717-29.[PDF]
  19. Bailey, L. Ens, B., Both, C. Heg, D., Oosterbeek, K. & van de Pol, M. (2017) Phenotypic plasticity in nest‐site selection as a response to extreme flooding events. Phil. Trans. Roy Soc. B 372: 20160139.[PDF]
  20. van de Pol, M., Jenouvrier, S. Cornelissen, J. H.C. & Visser, M.E. (2017) Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary response to extreme climatic events: Challenges and directions. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B 372: 20160134.[PDF]
  21. McLean, N., Lawson, C., Leech, D. & van de Pol, M. (2016) Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics. Ecology Letters 19, 595-608.
  22. van de Pol, M.,Bailey, L. McLean, N. Rijsdijk, L., Lawson, C. & Brouwer, L. (2016) Identifying the best climatic predictors in ecology and evolution. Methods in Ecology & Evolution 7, 1246–1257 [PDF]
  23. Bailey, L.D. & van de Pol, M. (2016) climwin: An R Toolbox for Climate Window Analysis. PLoS ONE 11: e0167980. [PDF]
  24. Bakker, J.P., Baas, A.C., Bartholdy, J., Jones, L., Ruessink, G., Temmerman, S. & van de Pol, M. (2016). Environmental Impacts—Coastal Ecosystems. In North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (pp. 275-314). Springer International Publishing [PDF]
  25. Bailey, L.D. & van de Pol, M. (2016). Tackling extremes: Challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events. Journal of Animal Ecology, 85, 85-96.[PDF]
  26. Cockburn, A., Brouwer, L., Margraf, N., Osmond, H.L & van de Pol, M. (2016) Making the worst of a good job: cooperative breeding in superb fairy-wrens. In Cooperative Breeding in Vertebrates: Studies of Ecology, Evolution and Behaviour (ed. Koenig & Dickinson). Cambridge University Press.
  27. Mourocq, E., Bize, P., Bouwhuis, S. Bradley, R., Burke, T., Charmantier, A. de la Cruz, C., Drobniak, S.M. Espie, R.H.M., Herenyi, M., Hotker, H. Kempenaers, B., Kruger, O., Marzluff, J., Moller, A.P., Nakagawa, S., Phillips, R. Radford, A. Roulin, A., Schlicht, E., Torok, J., Valencia, J., van de Pol, M., Warkentin, I.G., Wood, A.G., Winney, I.S., Griesser, M. (2016). Lifespan and reproductive cost explain interspecific variation in the optimal onset of reproduction. Evolution 70 (2), 296-313.[PDF]
  28. Lejeune, L., van de Pol, M., Cockburn, A., Louter, M. & Brouwer, L. (2016) Male and female helper effects on maternal investment and adult survival in red-winged fairy-wrens. Behavioural Ecology 27: 1841-1850.[PDF]
  29. Lawson, C., Vindenes, Y., Bailey, L. & van de Pol, M. (2015). Environmental variation and population responses to global change. Ecology Letters 18: 724-736. [PDF]
  30. Herfindal, I., van de Pol, M., Nielsen, J.T., Sæther, B.E. & Møller, A.P. (2015) Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor. Journal of Animal Ecology 84: 702-711. [PDF]
  31. Bailey, L.D. & van de Pol, M. 2015. R package climwin: Climate Window Analysis. Statistical software. http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/climwin/
  32. Ens, B.J., van de Pol, M. & Goss-Custard, J. (2014). The study of career decisions: Oystercatchers as social prisoners. Advances in the Study of Behaviour, 46: 343-420.[PDF]
  33. Brouwer, L., van de Pol, M. & Cockburn, A.  (2014) The role of social environment on parental care: offspring benefit more from the presence of female than male helpers. Journal of Animal Ecology 83: 491-503.[PDF]
  34. van de Pol, M. & Atkinson, P., Blew, J., Crowe, O. Delany, S., Duriez, O., Ens, B., Hälterlein, B., Hötker, H., Laursen, K., Oosterbeek, K., Petersen, A., Thorup, O.,  Tjørve, K., Triplet, P. & Yésou, P. (2014) A global assessment of the conservation status of the nominate subspecies of Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus). IWS 20: 47-61. [PDF]
  35. Brouwer, L., van de Pol, M. & Cockburn, A. (2014) Habitat geometry does not affect levels of extrapair paternity in an extremely unfaithful fairy-wren. Behavioural Ecology 25: 531-537. [PDF]
  36. van de Pol, M., Brouwer, L., Brooker, L.C., Brooker, M.G., Colombelli-Negrel, D., Hall, M.L., Langmore, N.E., Peters, A.   Pruett-Jones, S., Russell, E.M., Webster, M.S. & Cockburn, A.(2013) Problems with using large-scale oceanic climate indices to compare climatic sensitivities across populations and species. Ecography 36: 249-255. [PDF]
  37. Cockburn, A., Brouwer, L., Double, M.C., Margraf, N. & van de Pol, M. (2013) Evolutionary origins and persistence of infidelity in Malurus: the least faithful birds. Emu 113: 208-217. [PDF]
  38. van de Pol, M., Ens, B.J., Bakker, J.P. Esselink, P. (2012) Sea-level rise and increasing flooding risk of saltmarsh breeding birds. De Levende Natuur 113: 123‐128 [PDF]
  39. van de Pol, M., Osmond, H & Cockburn, A. (2012) Fluctuations in population composition dampen the impact of phenotypic plasticity on trait dynamics in superb fairy-wrens. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81: 411-421. [PDF]
  40. van de Pol, M. (2012) Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: how study design affects the accuracy, precision and power of random regression models. Methods in Ecology & Evolution, 3: 268-280. [PDF]
  41. Dingemanse, N., Bouwman, K., van de Pol, M., van Overveld, T., Patrick, S., Matthysen, E. & Quinn, J. (2012) Variation in personality and behavioural plasticity across four populations of great tit Parus Major. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81: 116–126. [PDF]
  42. van de Pol, M., Vindenes, Y., Sæther, B.E., Engen, S., Ens, B.J., Oosterbeek, K., Tinbergen, J.M. (2011) Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 278: 3713-3722.[PDF]
  43. Brouwer, L., van de Pol, M., Atema, E. & Cockburn, A. (2011) Strategic promiscuity helps avoid inbreeding at multiple levels in a cooperative breeder where both sexes are philopatric. Molecular Ecology 20: 4796–4807.[PDF]
  44. van de Pol, M. & Cockburn, A. (2011) Identifying the critical climatic time-window that affects trait expression. The American Naturalist 177: 698-707. [PDF]
  45. van de Pol, M. (2011) R-package odprism: Optimal Design and Performance of Random Intercept and Slope Models. http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/odprism/
  46. van de Pol, M., Ens, B.J., Heg, D.H., Brouwer, L., Krol, J., Maier, M., Exo, K-M., Oosterbeek, K., Lok, T., Eising, C., Koffijberg, K. (2010) Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds? Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 720-730 [PDF]
  47. van de Pol, M., Vindenes, Y., Sæther, B.E., Engen, S., Ens, B., Oosterbeek, K., Tinbergen, J.M. (2010) Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 91: 1192-1204. [PDF]
  48. van de Pol, M., Brouwer, L., Ens, B.J., Oosterbeek, K., Tinbergen, J.M. (2010) Fluctuating selection and the maintenance of individual and sex-specific diet specialization in oystercatchers. Evolution 64: 836-851 [PDF]
  49. Brouwer, L., Barr, I., van de Pol, M., Burke, T., Komdeur, J. & Richardson, D.S. (2010) MHC-dependent survival in a wild population: evidence for hidden genetic benefits gained through extra-pair fertilisations. Molecular Ecology 19: 3444-3455. [PDF]
  50. van de Pol, M. (2010) Invisible connections: Why migratory shorebirds need the Yellow sea. Emu 110, 378-379.
  51. van de Pol, M. (2010) Reproductive rates under competition. Ardea 98: 120-121.
  52. van de Pol, M. & Wright, J. (2009) A simple method for distinguishing within versus between-subject effects using mixed models. Animal Behaviour 77:753-758. [PDF]
  53. van de Pol, M. & Oosterbeek, K., Rutten, A.L., Ens, B.J., Tinbergen, J.M. & Verhulst, S. (2009) Biometric sex discrimination is unreliable when sexual dimorphism varies within and between years: an example in Eurasian oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus. Ibis 151: 171-180. [PDF]
  54. van de Pol, M., Ens, B.J., Oosterbeek, K., Brouwer, L., Rutten, A.L.,  de Jong, M.  (2009) Oystercatchers’ bill shapes as a proxy for diet specialization: more differentiation than meets the eye. Ardea 97: 335-347. [PDF]
  55. van de Pol, M. (2009) The relation between food abundance and the survival of shorebirds. SOVON Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology report to the government, 45 pages.
  56. van de Pol, M., Pen, I., Heg, D. & Weissing, F.J. (2007) Variation in habitat choice and delayed reproduction:  Adaptive queuing strategies or quality differences? The American Naturalist 170: 530-541.[PDF]
  57. van de Pol, M. & Verhulst, S. (2006) Age-dependent traits: a new statistical model to separate within- and between- individual effects. The American Naturalist 167: 766-773 [PDF]
  58. van de Pol, M., Bruinzeel, L.W., Heg, D., Van der Jeugd, H.P. & Verhulst, S. (2006). A silver spoon for a golden future: long-term effects of natal origin on fitness prospects of Oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus). Journal of Animal Ecology75: 616-626 [PDF]
  59. van de Pol, M., Bruinzeel, L.W., Heg, D., Kuijper, A.L.W. & Verhulst, S. (2006) Experimental and observational evidence that reproductive performance improves with pair bond duration in oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus). Behavioral Ecology 17: 982-991.[PDF]
  60. van de Pol, M., Bakker, T, Saaltink, D.J. & Verhulst, S. (2006) Rearing conditions determine offspring survival independent of egg quality: a cross-foster experiment with Oystercatchers. Ibis 148: 203-210.[PDF]
  61. Bruinzeel, L.W., van de Pol, M. & Trierweiler, C. (2006) Competitive abilities of Oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) occupying territories of different quality. Journal of Ornithology 147: 457-463.[PDF]
  62. van de Pol, M. (2006) State dependent life-history strategies: a long-term study on Oystercatchers. University of Groningen, the Netherlands. ISBN 90-367-2677-8  [PDF]
  63. Oosterbeek, K.H., van de Pol, M., de Jong, M.L., Smit, C.J. & Ens, B.J. (2006) Identifying the causes of the strong decline of Oystercatchers in the Wadden Sea estuary. Alterra Research report nr. 1344, report to the government. [PDF].
  64. Bruinzeel, L.W. & van de Pol, M. (2004) Site attachment of floaters predicts success in territory acquisition. Behavioral Ecology 15: 290-296. [PDF]
  65. Bruinzeel, L.W. & van de Pol, M. (2003) Population decline of Oystercatchers on Schiermonnikoog. Limosa 76, 25-26. [PDF]
  66. Ens, B.J., Berrevoets, C., Bruinzeel, L.W., Bult, T., Haanstra, L., Hulscher, J.B., Koks, B., van de Pol, M., Rappoldt, C., Teunissen, W. & Verhulst, S. (2003) What causes the current decline of Oystercatchers in the Netherlands? Limosa 76: 34-38 [PDF]